SAGE THERAPEUTICS, INC. is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Tuesday. It returned -2.74% to close at 98.55. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 7% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at +0.01%.
SAGE is currently in a up trend. The previous long signal in SAGE has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are invested in SAGE at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.
SAGE has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 1 Feb, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, SAGE outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days SAGE outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.
SAGE was profitable on 50% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.53% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -10.22%, during this period, on Tuesday, 13 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 30 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +16.48% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -19.8% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, SAGE delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. SAGE delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. SAGE was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -14.98% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. SAGE had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -46.3%. It is interesting to note that both SAGE and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
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SAGE is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in SAGE's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 25 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SAGE has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
Investors trading in SAGE derivatives at this moment can consider 'Covered Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
On a general note (since you are interested in SAGE), TYHT has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.
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