PRETIUM RESOURCES INC. (FOREIGN)

7.13 -0.17 (-2.33%) Sell

PVG investors incur serious losses

13 min read

PRETIUM RESOURCES INC. (Foreign) has destroyed investor wealth today. It delivered -2.33% to close at 7.13. During the last week it increased by +0.99% and saw a maximum drawdown of -3.52% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing PVG]

Buy-and-Hold investors in PVG experienced a maximum drawdown of -16.94% over the last three months. It delivered -6.92% during this bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +4.15%.

Trend

PVG has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 13 Jul, 2016 to 23 Feb, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, PVG outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days PVG outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months PVG was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.07% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.28%) was on Thursday, 11 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -9.93%) was on Tuesday, 9 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 profitable days, which started on 13 Nov, 2018 and went on till 19 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +4.73% to investors.

The last 12 months saw PVG's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. PVG was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. PVG was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jan 2018, returned -40.77% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. PVG had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both PVG and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants.
-- Epictetus

PVG is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in PVG's volatility from 11 Oct, 2018 to 23 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PVG has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that PVG is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than PVG. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than PVG in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PVG.

On a general note (since you are interested in PVG), two small cap instruments that deserve special mention are BURL and AAXN. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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