21.15 -0.06 (-0.28%) Buy

Don't buy PEGI now, it is underperforming the market

13 min read

PATTERN ENERGY GROUP INC. delivered massive losses today. It fell by -0.28% to close at 21.15. It's recent 5 day performance has been +2.07%, -1.0%, +1.45%, -1.48% and +0.1%.

[Themes containing PEGI]

PEGI showed a bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period PEGI surged by +7.69% and saw a maximum drawdown of -16.55%. There were 2 long signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +6.04% to investors.


PEGI has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 8 Sep, 2016 to 13 Jul, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, PEGI underperformed the SP500 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days PEGI underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

PEGI was profitable on 58% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.14% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -6.34%, during this period, on Tuesday, 23 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 profitable days, which started on 1 Nov, 2018 and went on till 7 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +15.48% to investors.

During the last year PEGI had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. PEGI returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. PEGI significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +15.46% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. PEGI had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.

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PEGI is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in PEGI's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 6 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PEGI has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect PEGI to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes PEGI a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

PEGI has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, PEGI must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PEGI.

Based on your interest in PEGI you may find it interesting to know that SQ, TWTR and LULU are mid caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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