30.92 -1.97 (-6.36%) Sell

PDCE is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

PDC ENERGY, INC. ranked among the worst performers today. It returned -6.36% to close at 30.92. It's recent 5 day performance has been -1.46%, +0.51%, -0.06%, -2.43% and +0.65%.

[Themes containing PDCE]

PDCE is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +20.62% for investors.


PDCE has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 13 Dec, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, PDCE underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days PDCE underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

PDCE returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.63% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -10.47%, during this period, on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 30 Oct, 2018 and went on till 7 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +17.9% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 8 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -24.02% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, PDCE delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. PDCE delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. PDCE was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -20.05% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. PDCE had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -65.31%. It is interesting to note that both PDCE and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I have probably purchased fifty 'hot tips' in my career, maybe even more. When I put them all together, I know I am a net loser.
-- Charles Schwab

PDCE is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in PDCE's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 8 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PDCE has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than PDCE. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than PDCE in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PDCE.

On a general note (since you are interested in PDCE), ABMD is a mid cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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