NAUTILUS, INC.

11.55 -0.24 (-2.12%) Sell

NLS is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

NAUTILUS, INC. delivered massive losses on Thursday. It fell by -2.12% to close at 11.55. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 10% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0002%.

[Themes containing NLS]

NLS is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +9.3% for investors.

Trend

NLS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 16 Sep, 2016 to 26 Jan, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, NLS underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months NLS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.31% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.7%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -11.27%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 27 Nov, 2018 and ended on 6 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -12.62% of investor capital.

During the last year NLS had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. NLS returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. NLS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Mar 2018, when it returned +13.5% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. NLS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.

Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune.
-- Jim Rohn

NLS is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in NLS's volatility from 20 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NLS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect NLS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes NLS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than NLS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than NLS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NLS.

On a general note (since you are interested in NLS), three small cap instruments that deserve special mention are HQY, ZBRA and EHC. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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