Don't give up on IPG now, it gave a fairly good return

INTERPUBLIC GROUP OF COMPANIES, INC. ranked better than it's peers on Tuesday. It delivered +0.46% to close at 21.86. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 10% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at +0.01%.

[Themes containing IPG]

IPG showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period IPG fell by -2.24% and saw a maximum drawdown of -11.72%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in IPG till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

IPG has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 22 Jun, 2016 to 3 Jan, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, IPG underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days IPG underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months IPG delivered profits on 52% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +9.65%) was on Friday, 19 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.06%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +14.46%) started on 15 Oct, 2018 and went on till 19 Oct, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -7.43%) started on 22 Oct, 2018 and went on till 26 Oct, 2018.

During the last year IPG had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. IPG returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. IPG significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +8.1% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. IPG had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both IPG and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Wealth is like sea-water; the more we drink, the thirstier we become; and the same is true of fame.
-- Arthur Schopenhauer

IPG is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in IPG's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 19 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that IPG has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect IPG to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes IPG a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than IPG. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than IPG in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than IPG.

Based on your interest in IPG you may find it interesting to know that MVBF has delivered similar performance as IPG and can be considered as an alternative investment candidate (to IPG).