68.94 -0.9 (-1.3%) Sell

Waiting to invest in IBKC? Avoid at the moment as it is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it

13 min read

IBERIABANK CORP is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. It delivered -1.3% to close at 68.94. It's recent 5 day performance has been -2.55%, +1.3%, -0.04%, -1.16% and +0.63%.

[Themes containing IBKC]

IBKC showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period IBKC delivered -18.22% and saw a maximum drawdown of -18.7%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +18.22%.


IBKC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 25 Jan, 2016 to 8 Dec, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, IBKC underperformed the SP500 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days IBKC underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

IBKC returned losses on 58% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.31% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -5.19%, during this period, on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +5.92%) started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -4.23%) started on 26 Sep, 2018 and went on till 2 Oct, 2018.

The last 12 months saw IBKC's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. IBKC was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. IBKC significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +9.39% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. IBKC had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered -10.32%. It is interesting to note that both IBKC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Money is not the only answer, but it makes a difference.
-- Barack Obama

IBKC is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in IBKC's volatility from 24 Sep, 2018 to 10 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that IBKC has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect IBKC to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes IBKC a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

IBKC has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, IBKC must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than IBKC.

Based on your interest in IBKC you may find it interesting to know that FFIN has delivered similar performance as IBKC and can be considered as an alternative investment candidate (to IBKC).

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