HAYNES INTERNATIONAL INC is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Thursday. It delivered -1.59% to close at 29.04. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 73% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0002%.
Buy-and-Hold investors in HAYN experienced a maximum drawdown of -20.03% over the last three months. It delivered -17.83% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +0.39%.
HAYN has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 8 Dec, 2016 to 25 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, HAYN underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.
HAYN returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.28% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +14.34%, during this period, on Friday, 16 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 profitable days, which started on 31 Oct, 2018 and went on till 8 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +12.81% to investors.
The last 12 months saw HAYN's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. HAYN was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. HAYN was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -17.8% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. HAYN had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -34.91%. It is interesting to note that both HAYN and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune.
-- Jim Rohn
HAYN is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in HAYN's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 16 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HAYN has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
On a general note (since you are interested in HAYN), if you are an investor in OPNT, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.
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