HAWAIIAN HOLDINGS INC ranked among the best performers today. It delivered +0.03% to close at 29.24. It's recent 5 day performance has been -2.89%, +2.73%, -4.19%, +0.18% and -7.95%.
HA showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period HA delivered -26.81% and saw a maximum drawdown of -27.74%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in HA till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
HA has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 21 Dec, 2016 to 13 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, HA underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days HA underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
During the last three months HA was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.44% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.79%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -12.76%) was on Thursday, 6 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +4.82%) started on 16 Nov, 2018 and went on till 26 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -15.68%) started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 11 Oct, 2018.
The last 12 months saw HA's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. HA was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. HA was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -27.15% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. HA had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both HA and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
As long as you're going to be thinking anyway, think big.
-- Donald Trump
HA is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in HA's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 11 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HA has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect HA to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes HA a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
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