10.24 -0.42 (-4.12%) Buy

Looking to invest in GOL? Look for alternatives because it ranked worse than it's peers

13 min read

GOL INTELLIGENT AIRLINES INC. (Foreign) ranked among the worst performers on Friday. It fell by -4.12% to close at 10.24. It is currently trading +128% above it's 52 week low of 4.49 and is down only -27% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing GOL]

GOL showed a strong bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period GOL increased by +104.8% and saw a maximum drawdown of -11.48%. There was a long signal during this period which returned +59.75%.


GOL has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 26 Jan, 2016 to 6 Apr, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, GOL outperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days GOL outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months GOL was mostly profitable and delivered on average +1.28% per day. It's best return during this period (of +19.66%) was on Monday, 8 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -11.48%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 14 Sep, 2018 and went on till 21 Sep, 2018. This bullish trend returned +23.77% to investors.

During the last year GOL had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. GOL returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. GOL significantly outperformed SP500 index in Oct 2018, when it returned +87.69% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. GOL had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both GOL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do.
-- Mark Twain

GOL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in GOL's volatility from 12 Sep, 2018 to 8 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GOL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that GOL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GOL. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than GOL in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GOL.

Based on your interest in GOL you may find it interesting to know that EPIX, IX and IMTE are all extremely risky investment candidates that must be evaluated carefully. Investors with low risk profile are better off avoiding them till their performance becomes more consistent.

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