11.01 -0.29 (-2.65%) Sell

GLT is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

GLATFELTER P H CO delivered massive losses on Thursday. It delivered -2.65% to close at 11.01. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 68% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0002%.

[Themes containing GLT]

GLT is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +37.91% for investors.


GLT has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 26 Apr, 2016 to 13 Dec, 2018. One must note that GLT is currently at it's worst performance to the SP500 index which makes it a bad investment candidate. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, GLT underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days GLT underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months GLT was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.84% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.74%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -21.87%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 30 Nov, 2018 and ended on 11 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -15.59% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw GLT's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. GLT was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. GLT was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -28.77% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. GLT had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -49.52%. It is interesting to note that both GLT and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I hate weekends because there is no stock market.
-- Rene Rivkin

GLT is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in GLT's volatility from 20 Sep, 2018 to 7 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GLT has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect GLT to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes GLT a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GLT. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than GLT in your portfolio. GLT usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in GLT), two instruments that deserve special mention are ~SMALLCAP and APRN. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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