GDEN is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it
11 Dec, 201813 min read
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GOLDEN ENTERTAINMENT, INC. delivered massive losses today. It fell by -2.0% to close at 17.13. During the last week it fell by -2.95% and saw a maximum drawdown of -5.83% before bouncing back.
Buy-and-Hold investors in GDEN experienced a maximum drawdown of -46.9% over the last three months. It fell by -34.84% during this strong bearish trending period. There were no long signals during this period, where the short signal generated good profits of +34.84% for investors.
GDEN has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 23 Jan, 2017 to 28 Nov, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, GDEN outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.
During the last three months GDEN was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.59% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.56%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -18.37%) was on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 21 Nov, 2018 and went on till 29 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +20.43% to investors.
During the last year GDEN had 3 profitable months and 9 loss making months. GDEN returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. GDEN was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -26.56% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. GDEN had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -56.36%. It is interesting to note that both GDEN and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
You know you are on the road to success if you would do your job, and not be paid for it.
-- Oprah Winfrey
GDEN is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in GDEN's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 21 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GDEN has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GDEN. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than GDEN in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GDEN.
On a general note (since you are interested in GDEN), PRQR has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.
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