43.12 -0.77 (-1.78%) Sell

FLIR is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

FLIR SYSTEMS INC was among the worst performers on Friday. It delivered -1.78% to close at 43.12 which is it's 52 week low, down -31% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing FLIR]

FLIR showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period FLIR delivered -30.71% and saw a maximum drawdown of -31.05%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +30.71%.


FLIR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 21 Oct, 2016 to 4 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, FLIR outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months FLIR was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.55% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.5%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -12.92%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 2 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.68% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw FLIR's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. FLIR was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. FLIR was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -24.69% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. FLIR had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -33.65%. It is interesting to note that both FLIR and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Let him who would enjoy a good future waste none of his present.
-- Roger Babson

FLIR is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FLIR's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FLIR has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FLIR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FLIR in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FLIR.

Based on your interest in FLIR you may find it interesting to know that LULU is a mid cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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