16.42 -0.41 (-2.49%) Sell

FDC is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

FIRST DATA CORP was among the worst performers today. It fell by -2.49% to close at 16.42. It's recent 5 day performance has been -2.43%, -2.21%, +0.91%, -1.19% and -0.11%.

[Themes containing FDC]

FDC showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period FDC fell by -35.46% and saw a maximum drawdown of -35.88%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +26.72% to investors.


FDC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 8 Mar, 2018 to 14 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, FDC underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days FDC underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months FDC was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.65% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.23%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -16.62%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 18 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.3% of investor capital.

During the last year FDC had 8 profitable months and 4 loss making months. Profitable number of months of FDC and SP500 index were the same. FDC was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -22.4% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. FDC and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both FDC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Wealth is the ability to fully experience life.
-- Henry David Thoreau

FDC is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FDC's volatility from 24 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FDC has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect FDC to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes FDC a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FDC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FDC in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FDC.

On a general note (since you are interested in FDC), two instruments that deserve special mention are TYHT and AMRH. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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