9.16 +0.13 (+1.44%) Buy

Party time for ERF investors as it was among the best performers

13 min read

ENERPLUS CORP (Foreign) delivered stellar performance today. It gained +1.44% to close at 9.16. It's recent 5 day performance has been -6.52%, -4.45%, +4.98%, -1.43% and +3.17%.

[Themes containing ERF]

ERF is currently in a up trend. The previous long signal in ERF has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are invested in ERF at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.


ERF has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 3 Aug, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, ERF outperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days ERF outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

ERF returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.31% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -6.52%, during this period, on Thursday, 6 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 22 Oct, 2018 and went on till 25 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -12.18% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 14 Nov, 2018 and ended on 19 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +7.13% to investors.

On monthly basis, ERF delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. ERF delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. ERF was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -26.21% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ERF had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ERF and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money

ERF is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ERF's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 14 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ERF has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that ERF is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ERF. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ERF in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ERF.

On a general note (since you are interested in ERF), two instruments that have been extremely volatile in recent times are ICPT and NVCN. Investors in these instruments should consider reducing their exposure (to ICPT and NVCN) and diversifying their portfolios.

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