65.35 +2.01 (+3.08%) Sell

Don't give up on ECOL now, it gave a fairly good return

13 min read

ECOL ranked among the best performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in US ECOLOGY, INC. made -0.05% per day. Friday's performance of +3.08% was a outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing ECOL]

ECOL showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ECOL fell by -12.4% and saw a maximum drawdown of -18.45%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in ECOL till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.


ECOL has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 12 Jan, 2016 to 7 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, ECOL outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days ECOL outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months ECOL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.19% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.99%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.31%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 13 losing days, which started on 26 Sep, 2018 and ended on 12 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -14.9% of investor capital.

During the last year ECOL had 9 profitable months and 3 loss making months. ECOL returned profits in more months than SP500 index. ECOL significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +13.7% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. ECOL had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 9 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered +38.42%. It is interesting to note that both ECOL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

A wise person should have money in their head, but not in their heart.
-- Jonathan Swift

ECOL is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ECOL's volatility from 1 Oct, 2018 to 5 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ECOL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ECOL. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ECOL in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ECOL.

Based on your interest in ECOL you may find it interesting to know that IMTE and ICPT are highly volatile and therefore risky. Investors should consider limiting their exposure to these instruments (because of their volatile nature).

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