CTRIP COM INTERNATIONAL LTD (FOREIGN)

27.05 -0.26 (-0.95%) Sell

CTRP investors incur serious losses

13 min read

CTRIP COM INTERNATIONAL LTD (Foreign) was among the worst performers today. It delivered -0.95% to close at 27.05. During the last week it delivered -6.82% and saw a maximum drawdown of -6.82%.

[Themes containing CTRP]

CTRP is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +30.16% for investors in the last three months.

Trend

CTRP has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 31 Jul, 2017 to 9 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, CTRP underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days CTRP underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months CTRP was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.49% per day. It's best return during this period (of +9.96%) was on Friday, 12 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -19.02%) was on Thursday, 8 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 11 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.36% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw CTRP's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. CTRP was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. CTRP was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -13.31% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. CTRP had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from Jul 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -52.28%.

Money is only a tool. It will take you wherever you wish, but it will not replace you as the driver.
-- Ayn Rand

CTRP is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CTRP's volatility from 1 Oct, 2018 to 13 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CTRP has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

Investors trading in CTRP derivatives at this moment can consider 'Married Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CTRP. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CTRP in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CTRP.

Based on your interest in CTRP you may find it interesting to know that HEAR, DFBG and ECYT have all shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investor's watchlist.

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