CRITEO S.A.

24.62 +0.2 (+0.82%) Buy

CRTO investors rewarded by market outperformance

13 min read

CRITEO S.A. outperformed the broader market today. It increased by +0.82% to close at 24.62. During the last week it increased by +6.9% and saw a maximum drawdown of -0.83% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing CRTO]

Buy-and-Hold investors in CRTO experienced a maximum drawdown of -18.64% over the last three months. It increased by +8.79% during this bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +3.84%.

Trend

CRTO has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 9 May, 2017 to 1 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, CRTO underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days CRTO underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months CRTO delivered losses on 52% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +9.16%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.31%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 profitable days, which started on 12 Nov, 2018 and went on till 16 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +8.77% to investors.

The last 12 months saw CRTO's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. CRTO was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. CRTO significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jun 2018, when it returned +36.02% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CRTO had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both CRTO and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know. Then again, there is a third type of investor -the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn't know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.

CRTO is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CRTO's volatility from 27 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CRTO has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CRTO. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CRTO in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CRTO.

On a general note (since you are interested in CRTO), three large cap instruments that deserve special mention are UNH, MSFT and AMZN. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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