CALLON PETROLEUM CO

7.53 -0.25 (-3.34%) Sell

CPE is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

CALLON PETROLEUM CO significantly underperformed today. It returned -3.34% to close at 7.53. It's recent 5 day performance has been -3.11%, +0.63%, -6.0%, -4.28% and +3.86%.

[Themes containing CPE]

CPE showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period CPE returned -35.81% and saw a maximum drawdown of -41.36%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +36.07% to investors.

Trend

CPE has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 30 Nov, 2016. CPE is currently at it's worst performance to the SP500 index and therefore does not make a good investment candidate. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, CPE underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days CPE underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

CPE returned losses on 61% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.66% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -8.49%, during this period, on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 1 Oct, 2018 and went on till 3 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.31% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -23.25% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, CPE delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. CPE delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. CPE significantly outperformed SP500 index in Mar 2018, when it returned +25.26% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CPE had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both CPE and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.

CPE is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CPE's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 11 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CPE has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CPE. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CPE in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CPE.

Based on your interest in CPE you may find it interesting to know that NFEC, HEAR and PRQR have all shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investor's watchlist.

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