CNOOC LTD (FOREIGN)

163.12 +0.87 (+0.54%) Sell

CEO investors hold onto their investments as it marginally outperforms

13 min read

CNOOC LTD (Foreign) outperformed on Tuesday. It surged by +0.54% to close at 163.12. It is currently trading -18% below it's 52 week high of 200.98.

[Themes containing CEO]

Buy-and-Hold investors in CEO experienced a maximum drawdown of -22.41% over the last three months. It fell by -10.82% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +3.19%.

Trend

CEO has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 16 Aug, 2017 to 1 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, CEO outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

CEO was profitable on 50% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.16% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -5.42%, during this period, on Tuesday, 20 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 2 Oct, 2018 and ended on 8 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.99% of investor capital.

During the last year CEO had 8 profitable months and 4 loss making months. Profitable number of months of CEO and SP500 index were the same. CEO significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +17.31% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CEO had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 7 straight months (from Mar 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered +39.36%. It is interesting to note that both CEO and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks.
-- John Bogle

CEO is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CEO's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CEO has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that CEO is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CEO. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CEO in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CEO.

On a general note (since you are interested in CEO), two small cap instruments that deserve special mention are EHC and ZBRA. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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