BLUEGREEN VACATIONS CORP

14.01 +0.5 (+3.55%) Buy

BXG continues to mint money for it's investors

13 min read

BLUEGREEN VACATIONS CORP outperformed on Monday. It surged by +3.55% to close at 14.01. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 84% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing BXG]

BXG showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period BXG fell by -24.47% and saw a maximum drawdown of -42.05%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +24.1%.

Trend

BXG has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 31 Jul, 2018 to 20 Nov, 2018. Over the last 1 year and 1 month, BXG outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

BXG returned losses on 61% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.35% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +17.04%, during this period, on Tuesday, 27 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +30.33%) started on 21 Nov, 2018 and went on till 28 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -16.27%) started on 28 Sep, 2018 and went on till 4 Oct, 2018.

During the last year BXG had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. BXG returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. BXG was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Aug 2018, returned -27.34% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. BXG had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both BXG and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The habit of saving is itself an education; it fosters every virtue, teaches self-denial, cultivates the sense of order, trains to forethought, and so broadens the mind.
-- T.T. Munger

BXG is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in BXG's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BXG has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect BXG to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes BXG a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BXG. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than BXG in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BXG.

On a general note (since you are interested in BXG), DFBG has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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