37.05 -0.05 (-0.13%) Sell

Doubt in the minds of BID investors as it was among the worst performers

13 min read

SOTHEBYS was among the worst performers on Thursday. It fell by -0.13% to close at 37.05. It is currently trading -37% below it's 52 week high of 59.67.

[Themes containing BID]

Buy-and-Hold investors in BID experienced a maximum drawdown of -26.1% over the last three months. It fell by -23.83% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +16.19%.


BID has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 11 Feb, 2016 to 25 Jul, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, BID outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months BID was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.41% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.17%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.8%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 2 Oct, 2018 and ended on 10 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -16.03% of investor capital.

During the last year BID had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. BID returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. BID was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -14.72% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. BID had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both BID and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The difference between succeeding and failing is consistency.
-- Don Connelly

BID is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in BID's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 7 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BID has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect BID to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes BID a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BID. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than BID in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BID.

On a general note (since you are interested in BID), two large cap instruments that deserve special mention are CSCO and UNH. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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