131.42 -9.7 (-7.38%) Buy

Don't buy BGNE now, it is underperforming the market

13 min read

BEIGENE, LTD. has destroyed investor wealth on Thursday. It fell by -7.38% to close at 131.42. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 3% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0002%.

[Themes containing BGNE]

BGNE showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period BGNE fell by -18.72% and saw a maximum drawdown of -38.9%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +1.53% to investors.


BGNE has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 8 Dec, 2016 to 8 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 10 months and 10 days, BGNE outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months BGNE was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.25% per day. It's best return during this period (of +13.78%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.73%) was on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 2 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -31.78% of investor capital.

During the last year BGNE had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. BGNE returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. BGNE significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +34.66% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. BGNE had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both BGNE and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I have probably purchased fifty 'hot tips' in my career, maybe even more. When I put them all together, I know I am a net loser.
-- Charles Schwab

BGNE is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in BGNE's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BGNE has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BGNE. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than BGNE in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BGNE.

On a general note (since you are interested in BGNE), HEAR has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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