17.04 +0.12 (+0.71%) Sell

AYR does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

AYR was among the best performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in AIRCASTLE LTD made -0.02% per day. Monday's performance of +0.71% was a significant outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing AYR]

Buy-and-Hold investors in AYR experienced a maximum drawdown of -23.37% over the last three months. It returned -18.82% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +12.26%.


AYR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 14 Feb, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, AYR underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days AYR underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months AYR was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.32% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.26%) was on Thursday, 27 Sep, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.76%) was on Monday, 22 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 12 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -10.85% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 30 Oct, 2018 and ended on 5 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +5.05% to investors.

On monthly basis, AYR delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. AYR delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. AYR was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -17.53% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. AYR had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both AYR and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants.

AYR is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in AYR's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AYR has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect AYR to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes AYR a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than AYR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than AYR in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AYR.

Based on your interest in AYR you may find it interesting to know that IX and NVCN are highly volatile and therefore risky. Investors should consider limiting their exposure to these instruments (because of their volatile nature).

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