3.18 -0.2 (-6.19%) Buy

Don't consider investing in ATRS now, it is risky at the moment

13 min read

ANTARES PHARMA, INC. has destroyed investor wealth on Friday. It returned -6.19% to close at 3.18. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 77% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0233%.

[Themes containing ATRS]

ATRS showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ATRS returned -5.92% and saw a maximum drawdown of -21.32%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in ATRS till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.


ATRS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 10 Oct, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, ATRS outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

ATRS returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.02% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +15.64%, during this period, on Tuesday, 2 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 2 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +16.44% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 8 Oct, 2018 and ended on 10 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -11.67% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, ATRS delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. ATRS delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. ATRS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +32.58% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. ATRS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.

Wealth is not his that has it, but his that enjoys it.
-- Benjamin Franklin

ATRS is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ATRS's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 1 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ATRS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ATRS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ATRS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ATRS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ATRS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ATRS.

On a general note (since you are interested in ATRS), LULU is a mid cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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