1.05 +0.01 (+0.96%) Sell

Don't give up on APRN now, it gave a fairly good return

13 min read

BLUE APRON HOLDINGS, INC. ranked among the best performers on Friday. It delivered +0.96% to close at 1.05. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 96% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

APRN showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period APRN delivered -41.01% and saw a maximum drawdown of -44.92%. There were 3 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +24.28% to investors.


APRN has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 29 Jun, 2017 to 3 Oct, 2018. Over the last 1 year and 6 months, APRN underperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months APRN was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.72% per day. It's best return during this period (of +11.4%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -11.33%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 30 Nov, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -13.32% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw APRN's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. APRN was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. APRN significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +46.89% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. APRN had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from Jul 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -97.14%.

It is not the man who has too little, but the man who craves more, that is poor.
-- Seneca

APRN is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in APRN's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 20 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that APRN has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect APRN to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes APRN a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

Investors trading in APRN derivatives at this moment can consider 'Married Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

APRN has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, APRN must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than APRN.

Based on your interest in APRN you may find it interesting to know that AMZN and UNH are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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