35.81 +0.23 (+0.65%) Sell

ANDX does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

ANDEAVOR LOGISTICS LP outperformed the broader market today. It increased by +0.65% to close at 35.81. It's recent 5 day performance has been +3.4%, +0.94%, -0.41%, -0.38% and -0.49%.

[Themes containing ANDX]

ANDX showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ANDX fell by -27.08% and saw a maximum drawdown of -32.33%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +22.94%.


ANDX has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 27 Jan, 2017 to 6 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, ANDX underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days ANDX underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months ANDX was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.48% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.78%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.57%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 8 Oct, 2018 and ended on 15 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.34% of investor capital.

During the last year ANDX had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. ANDX returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. ANDX was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -19.56% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ANDX had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -30.49%. It is interesting to note that both ANDX and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Confronted with a challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, Margin of Safety.

ANDX is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ANDX's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 4 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ANDX has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ANDX to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ANDX a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ANDX. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ANDX in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ANDX.

Based on your interest in ANDX you may find it interesting to know that NSPR has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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