AMYRIS, INC.

4.21 -0.14 (-3.22%) Sell

The party never started for AMRS investors as it significantly underperforms

13 min read

AMYRIS, INC. delivered massive losses today. It returned -3.22% to close at 4.21. During the last week it returned -3.0% and saw a maximum drawdown of -4.75% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing AMRS]

Buy-and-Hold investors in AMRS experienced a maximum drawdown of -61.36% over the last three months. It returned -44.24% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +40.62%.

Trend

AMRS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 6 Jan, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, AMRS underperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

AMRS returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.72% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -29.83%, during this period, on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 10 Oct, 2018 and went on till 15 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -20.18% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 21 Nov, 2018 and ended on 30 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +34.27% to investors.

On monthly basis, AMRS delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. AMRS delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. AMRS was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -33.69% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. AMRS had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -60.48%. It is interesting to note that both AMRS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The difference between playing the stock market and the horses is that one of the horses must win.
-- Joey Adams

AMRS is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in AMRS's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AMRS has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that AMRS is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than AMRS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than AMRS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AMRS.

Based on your interest in AMRS you may find it interesting to know that AMD, TWTR and SQ are mid caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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