14.12 -0.12 (-0.84%) Sell

AMGP is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

ANTERO MIDSTREAM GP LP significantly underperformed on Friday. It delivered -0.84% to close at 14.12. It is currently trading -35% below it's 52 week high of 22.02.

[Themes containing AMGP]

AMGP showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period AMGP delivered -15.14% and saw a maximum drawdown of -24.56%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +4.13% to investors.


AMGP has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 5 May, 2017 to 7 Nov, 2018. Over the last 1 year 7 months and 10 days, AMGP underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

AMGP returned losses on 67% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.24% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +9.17%, during this period, on Tuesday, 9 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 10 losing days, which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 30 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -15.5% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw AMGP's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. AMGP was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. AMGP was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Mar 2018, returned -13.57% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. AMGP had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -20.67%. It is interesting to note that both AMGP and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know. Then again, there is a third type of investor -the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn't know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.

AMGP is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in AMGP's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 28 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AMGP has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that AMGP is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

AMGP has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, AMGP must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AMGP.

Based on your interest in AMGP you may find it interesting to know that NIHD, DFBG and PRQR have all shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investor's watchlist.

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