17.99 +0.52 (+2.92%) Sell

AEGN does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

AEGN delivered stellar performance today. On a longer term basis, investors in AEGION CORP made +0.01% per day. Tuesday's performance of +2.92% was a significant outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing AEGN]

AEGN showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period AEGN returned -25.26% and saw a maximum drawdown of -32.11%. There were 3 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +10.83% to investors.


AEGN has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 8 Dec, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, AEGN underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days AEGN underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

AEGN returned losses on 55% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.42% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -15.27%, during this period, on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 25 Oct, 2018 and went on till 30 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +5.16% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 7 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.21% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, AEGN delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. AEGN delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. AEGN was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -21.68% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. AEGN had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.

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AEGN is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in AEGN's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 6 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AEGN has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect AEGN to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes AEGN a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than AEGN. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than AEGN in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AEGN.

Based on your interest in AEGN you may find it interesting to know that EPIX has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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