13.66 -0.44 (-3.19%) Buy

ABX investors treading cautiously as performance is muted

13 min read

BARRICK GOLD CORP (Foreign) significantly underperformed on Friday. It lost -3.19% to close at 13.66. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 12% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing ABX]

ABX is currently in a up trend. The current bullish signal has generated a profit of +22.18% for ABX's investors in the last three months.


ABX has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, ABX outperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days ABX outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months ABX was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.47% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.38%) was on Thursday, 11 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.12%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 5 Oct, 2018 and went on till 9 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -2.86% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 10 Oct, 2018 and ended on 16 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +12.19% to investors.

ABX had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, ABX underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. ABX was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -19.89% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ABX had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ABX and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.
-- Warren Edward Buffett

ABX is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ABX's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 26 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ABX has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ABX to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ABX a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

Investors trading in ABX derivatives at this moment can consider 'Long Strangle' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

ABX has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ABX must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ABX.

On a general note (since you are interested in ABX), SBOT has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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