45.25 -1.24 (-2.75%) Sell

AAWW is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS INC significantly underperformed on Friday. It returned -2.75% to close at 45.25 which is it's 52 week low, down -38% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing AAWW]

Buy-and-Hold investors in AAWW experienced a maximum drawdown of -29.9% over the last three months. It returned -28.8% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +24.29%.


AAWW has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 21 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, AAWW underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

AAWW returned losses on 59% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.5% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -6.88%, during this period, on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 25 Sep, 2018 and went on till 28 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +2.23% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -18.68% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, AAWW delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. AAWW delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. AAWW was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -16.8% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. AAWW had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.

Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune.
-- Jim Rohn

AAWW is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in AAWW's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AAWW has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than AAWW. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than AAWW in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AAWW.

On a general note (since you are interested in AAWW), NFEC has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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