Recreation THEME

325.44 -5.32 (-1.63%) Sell

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Waiting to invest in RECREATION THEME? Avoid at the moment as it significantly underperformed

13 min read

Recreation significantly underperformed on Wednesday. It delivered -1.63% to close at 325.44 which is it's 52 week low, down -70% from it's 52 week high.

[Theme constituents]

~RECREATION showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~RECREATION delivered -6.69% and saw a maximum drawdown of -23.07%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +6.69%.

Trend

~RECREATION has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 3 Nov, 2017 to 22 Jan, 2019. Over the last 1 year and 7 months, ~RECREATION underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 58% days.

During the last three months ~RECREATION was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.09% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.85%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.74%) was on Monday, 26 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 13 losing days, which started on 13 Nov, 2018 and ended on 30 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -18.79% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw ~RECREATION's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. ~RECREATION was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. ~RECREATION was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -34.32% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~RECREATION had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -53.59%. It is interesting to note that both ~RECREATION and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.
-- Albert Einstein

~RECREATION is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ~RECREATION's volatility from 30 Oct, 2018 to 8 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~RECREATION has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~RECREATION to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~RECREATION a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ~RECREATION. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ~RECREATION in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~RECREATION.

Based on your interest in ~RECREATION you may find it interesting to know that ASTRAZEN, VINATIORGA and NIITTECH are small caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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