WIPRO LTD

335.05 -4.49 (-1.34%) Buy

WIPRO investors treading cautiously as performance is muted

13 min read

WIPRO LTD is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. It lost -1.34% to close at 335.05. During the last week it returned +1.51% and saw a maximum drawdown of -1.64% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing WIPRO]

Buy-and-Hold investors in WIPRO experienced a maximum drawdown of -8.38% over the last three months. It returned +0.71% during this flat trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were marginally more profitable than the short signals.

Trend

WIPRO has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years and 12 months, WIPRO underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days WIPRO underperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months WIPRO delivered losses on 54% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +3.7%) was on Monday, 26 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.07%) was on Tuesday, 23 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 24 Sep, 2018 and went on till 27 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -4.92% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 29 Nov, 2018 and ended on 5 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +8.18% to investors.

WIPRO had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, WIPRO underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. WIPRO significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +8.99% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. WIPRO had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -21.93%.

Wealth is not his that has it, but his that enjoys it.
-- Benjamin Franklin

WIPRO is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in WIPRO's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 25 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that WIPRO has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect WIPRO to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes WIPRO a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in WIPRO derivatives at this moment can consider 'Long Straddle' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

WIPRO has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, WIPRO must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than WIPRO.

On a general note (since you are interested in WIPRO), three instruments that deserve special mention are ~MKTCAP201TO250, DMART and BAJFINANCE. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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