ICICI BANK LTD. performed better than the broader market today. It returned +1.06% to close at 362.25. It's recent 5 day performance has been +1.86%, +0.67%, -0.11%, +2.09% and -1.02%.
ICICIBANK showed a strong up trend over the last 3 months. During this period ICICIBANK returned +12.87% and saw a maximum drawdown of -7.35%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in ICICIBANK till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
ICICIBANK has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years and 12 months, ICICIBANK outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days ICICIBANK outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.
During the last three months ICICIBANK delivered losses on 52% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +10.69%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.28%) was on Wednesday, 3 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 6 Nov, 2018 and went on till 9 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +2.05% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 16 Nov, 2018 and ended on 22 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -4.94% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, ICICIBANK delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. ICICIBANK delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. ICICIBANK significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +14.1% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. ICICIBANK had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +15.1%. It is interesting to note that both ICICIBANK and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
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ICICIBANK is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ICICIBANK's volatility from 5 Oct, 2018 to 10 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ICICIBANK has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that ICICIBANK is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
Investors trading in ICICIBANK derivatives at this moment can consider 'Long Strangle' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ICICIBANK. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ICICIBANK in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ICICIBANK.
On a general note (since you are interested in ICICIBANK), BAJFINANCE is a large cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.
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