PACKAGING THEME investors looking to add more to current positions
18 Dec, 201814 min read
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Packaging showed marginal outperformance on Tuesday. It increased by +1.88% to close at 1366.39. It is currently trading -33% below it's 52 week high of 2048.85.
Buy-and-Hold investors in ~PACKAGING experienced a maximum drawdown of -14.53% over the last three months. It fell by -7.94% during this bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals.
~PACKAGING has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 26 Feb, 2016 to 28 Dec, 2017. Over the last 2 years and 12 months, ~PACKAGING underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.
During the last three months ~PACKAGING was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.13% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.34%) was on Wednesday, 3 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.09%) was on Friday, 21 Sep, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 losing days, which started on 16 Nov, 2018 and ended on 29 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.14% of investor capital.
During the last year ~PACKAGING had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. Profitable number of months of ~PACKAGING and NIFTY-50 index were the same. ~PACKAGING was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jun 2018, returned -11.68% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~PACKAGING had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +4.66%. It is interesting to note that both ~PACKAGING and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
The hardest thing to understand in the world is the income tax.
-- Albert Einstein
~PACKAGING is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ~PACKAGING's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 4 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~PACKAGING has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that ~PACKAGING is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
~PACKAGING has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, ~PACKAGING must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~PACKAGING.
Based on your interest in ~PACKAGING you may find it interesting to know that IGARASHI has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.
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