Market Cap 51-100 THEME

1121.11 +2.1 (+0.19%) Sell

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Don't go profit booking on MKTCAP51TO100 THEME now, it delivered a decent return

15 min read

Market Cap 51-100 managed to marginally outperform the broader market today. It gained +0.19% to close at 1121.11. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.48%, +1.99%, +1.5%, -1.75% and +0.11%.

[Theme constituents]

~MKTCAP51TO100 showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~MKTCAP51TO100 returned -6.08% and saw a maximum drawdown of -12.89%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +8.8% to investors.

Trend

~MKTCAP51TO100 has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 5 Jan, 2018. Over the last 1 year and 9 months, ~MKTCAP51TO100 underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 43% days. Which indicates that on days ~MKTCAP51TO100 underperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

~MKTCAP51TO100 was profitable on 51% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.1% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +3.38%, during this period, on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 3 Oct, 2018 and went on till 9 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -5.95% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 26 Oct, 2018 and ended on 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +8.13% to investors.

On monthly basis, ~MKTCAP51TO100 delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. ~MKTCAP51TO100 delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. ~MKTCAP51TO100 was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -11.4% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~MKTCAP51TO100 had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Mar 2018) during which period it delivered -9.97%. It is interesting to note that both ~MKTCAP51TO100 and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Believe you can and you're halfway there.
-- Theodore Roosevelt

~MKTCAP51TO100 is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~MKTCAP51TO100's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 12 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~MKTCAP51TO100 has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~MKTCAP51TO100 to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~MKTCAP51TO100 a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~MKTCAP51TO100 has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, ~MKTCAP51TO100 must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~MKTCAP51TO100.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~MKTCAP51TO100), three instruments that are extremely volatile are SRIPIPES, HATSUN and ~HOMEAPPLIANCES. They must all be evaluated prudently and investors are better off avoiding them at the moment.

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