Market Cap 201-250 THEME

1859.27 +5.81 (+0.31%) Buy

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MKTCAP201TO250 THEME investors not showing any loss of confidence as it pauses to catch its breath

15 min read

Market Cap 201-250 showed weakness today. It gained +0.31% to close at 1859.27. During the last week it gained +0.84% and saw a maximum drawdown of -0.23% before bouncing back.

[Theme constituents]

Buy-and-Hold investors in ~MKTCAP201TO250 experienced a maximum drawdown of -13.37% over the last three months. It returned -3.35% during this down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +3.36%.

Trend

~MKTCAP201TO250 has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 1 month and 10 day, ~MKTCAP201TO250 outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

~MKTCAP201TO250 was profitable on 50% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.05% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +3.42%, during this period, on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 3 Oct, 2018 and went on till 9 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -6.93% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 26 Oct, 2018 and ended on 5 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +6.29% to investors.

On monthly basis, ~MKTCAP201TO250 delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. ~MKTCAP201TO250 delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. ~MKTCAP201TO250 was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -12.77% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~MKTCAP201TO250 and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both ~MKTCAP201TO250 and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Money is a terrible master but an excellent servant.
-- P.T. Barnum

~MKTCAP201TO250 is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ~MKTCAP201TO250's volatility from 24 Sep, 2018 to 19 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~MKTCAP201TO250 has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ~MKTCAP201TO250. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ~MKTCAP201TO250 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~MKTCAP201TO250.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~MKTCAP201TO250), three instruments that have performed similar to ~MKTCAP201TO250 are NIFTY-PVT-BANK, HDFCBANK and ~HDFCGRP. They must all be evaluated as alternative investment options and for diversification.

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