Large Fmcg THEME

1731.1 +8.98 (+0.52%) Buy

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LARGEFMCG THEME investors considering profit booking at current levels

14 min read

Large FMCG performed better than the broader market on Tuesday. It returned +0.52% to close at 1731.1. It is currently trading +14% above it's 52 week low of 1509.59 and is down only -6% from it's 52 week high.

[Theme constituents]

~LARGEFMCG is currently in a up trend. The current bullish signal has generated a profit of +5.94% for ~LARGEFMCG's investors in the last three months.

Trend

~LARGEFMCG has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years and 12 months, ~LARGEFMCG outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.

During the last three months ~LARGEFMCG delivered profits on 51% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +3.15%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.26%) was on Friday, 5 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 3 Oct, 2018 and went on till 9 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -11.33% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 11 Dec, 2018 and ended on 18 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +6.52% to investors.

~LARGEFMCG had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. ~LARGEFMCG was profitable in more months than NIFTY-50 index. ~LARGEFMCG was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -7.95% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~LARGEFMCG had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Jun 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered +12.45%. It is interesting to note that both ~LARGEFMCG and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Some people dream of success, while other people get up every morning and make it happen.
-- Wayne Huizenga

~LARGEFMCG is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ~LARGEFMCG's volatility from 10 Oct, 2018 to 13 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~LARGEFMCG has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~LARGEFMCG to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~LARGEFMCG a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~LARGEFMCG has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, ~LARGEFMCG must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. ~LARGEFMCG usually has shorter drawdown period than the NIFTY-50 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~LARGEFMCG), HEG has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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