HOSPITALITY THEME continues it's uptrend, although on a weaker note

Hospitality managed to marginally outperform the broader market on Friday. It gained +0.22% to close at 1428.48. It is currently trading -19% below it's 52 week high of 1784.44.

[Theme constituents]

~HOSPITALITY showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~HOSPITALITY gained +4.36% and saw a maximum drawdown of -15.99%. There was a long signal during this period which returned +15.11%.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

~HOSPITALITY has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 13 days, ~HOSPITALITY outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days ~HOSPITALITY outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

~HOSPITALITY returned losses on 55% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.09% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.42%, during this period, on Wednesday, 12 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 18 Sep, 2018 and went on till 1 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -12.52% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 26 Oct, 2018 and ended on 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +6.49% to investors.

On monthly basis, ~HOSPITALITY delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. ~HOSPITALITY delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. ~HOSPITALITY was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -16.8% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~HOSPITALITY had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +17.68%. It is interesting to note that both ~HOSPITALITY and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Experience taught me a few things. One is to listen to your gut, no matter how good something sounds on paper. The second is that you're generally better off sticking with what you know. And the third is that sometimes your best investments are the ones you don't make.

~HOSPITALITY is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~HOSPITALITY's volatility from 21 Nov, 2018 to 12 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~HOSPITALITY has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ~HOSPITALITY. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ~HOSPITALITY in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~HOSPITALITY.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~HOSPITALITY), if you are an investor in HATSUN, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.