Fertilisers THEME

1892.77 -26.55 (-1.4%) Buy

Optimize theme

Don't consider buying FERTILISERS THEME now, it is risky at the moment

14 min read

Fertilisers trailed the broader market on Friday. It lost -1.4% to close at 1892.77. It is currently trading -34% below it's 52 week high of 2878.09.

[Theme constituents]

~FERTILISERS showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~FERTILISERS grew by +5.03% and saw a maximum drawdown of -10.29%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in ~FERTILISERS till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

~FERTILISERS has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 1 Nov, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ~FERTILISERS outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days ~FERTILISERS outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months ~FERTILISERS was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.09% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.05%) was on Wednesday, 12 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.79%) was on Wednesday, 5 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 23 Oct, 2018 and went on till 26 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -3.35% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 29 Oct, 2018 and ended on 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +9.71% to investors.

~FERTILISERS had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. ~FERTILISERS was profitable in more months than NIFTY-50 index. ~FERTILISERS was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -15.41% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~FERTILISERS and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both ~FERTILISERS and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.
-- George Soros

~FERTILISERS is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~FERTILISERS's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 13 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~FERTILISERS has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~FERTILISERS to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~FERTILISERS a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ~FERTILISERS. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ~FERTILISERS in your portfolio. ~FERTILISERS usually has shorter drawdown period than the NIFTY-50 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~FERTILISERS), BAJFINANCE has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

Want to improve your Portfolio's performance?

Spotalpha's Portfolio optimizer is all you need to improve your returns and reduce your risk.
Optimize Portfolio NOW
If you liked what you read here ...

... we have a small favour to ask. Help us bring the power of algorithmic trading strategies to individual investors.

All content in this article was automatically generated by algorithms. This ensures that there are no human biases in the analysis provided. This approach to investing is not new and has been around for more than three decades. Yet, it has been available to only the most affluent or elite investors leaving individual investors to trade on emotions (such as fear and greed), intuition and poor analysis from third-parties. We want to change this.

We want to empower investors with all the tools and analysis required by them to make a rational investment decision.

If you found Spotalpha useful, consider making a contribution. For as little as $5 you can support our efforts and it takes less than a minute. Thank you. Contribute
Share with friends   WhatsApp   Facebook   Twitter