ELECTRONICS THEME is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

Electronics significantly underperformed today. It delivered -0.88% to close at 3063.38. It's recent 5 day performance has been -2.41%, +0.13%, -0.55%, -0.83% and +1.29%.

[Theme constituents]

~ELECTRONICS is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +10.53% for investors.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

~ELECTRONICS has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 6 Jun, 2016 to 30 Nov, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ~ELECTRONICS outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days ~ELECTRONICS outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months ~ELECTRONICS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.17% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.72%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.41%) was on Thursday, 17 Jan, 2019. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +5.79%) started on 1 Nov, 2018 and went on till 9 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -6.1%) started on 4 Dec, 2018 and went on till 11 Dec, 2018.

The last 12 months saw ~ELECTRONICS's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. ~ELECTRONICS was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. ~ELECTRONICS was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -14.53% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~ELECTRONICS had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Apr 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -13.27%. It is interesting to note that both ~ELECTRONICS and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Security depends not so much upon how much you have, as upon how much you can do without.
-- Joseph Wood Krutch

~ELECTRONICS is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ~ELECTRONICS's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 18 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~ELECTRONICS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ~ELECTRONICS. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ~ELECTRONICS in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~ELECTRONICS.

Based on your interest in ~ELECTRONICS you may find it interesting to know that VINATIORGA is a small cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.