Edible Oils THEME

1403.97 -6.85 (-0.49%) Sell

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EDIBLEOILS THEME continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

13 min read

~EDIBLEOILS performed worse than the broader market today. On a longer term basis, investors in Edible Oils made +0.06% per day. Friday's performance of -0.49% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Theme constituents]

~EDIBLEOILS showed a strong bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~EDIBLEOILS delivered +19.48% and saw a maximum drawdown of -9.59%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in ~EDIBLEOILS till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

~EDIBLEOILS has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 16 Mar, 2016 to 14 Feb, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ~EDIBLEOILS underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days ~EDIBLEOILS underperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months ~EDIBLEOILS was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.3% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.51%) was on Monday, 3 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.59%) was on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 16 profitable days, which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 19 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +17.39% to investors.

During the last year ~EDIBLEOILS had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. ~EDIBLEOILS returned profits in fewer months than NIFTY-50 index. ~EDIBLEOILS was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -19.25% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~EDIBLEOILS and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both ~EDIBLEOILS and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

There is nothing wrong with changing a plan when the situation has changed.
-- Seneca

~EDIBLEOILS is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ~EDIBLEOILS's volatility from 12 Dec, 2018 to 18 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~EDIBLEOILS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ~EDIBLEOILS. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ~EDIBLEOILS in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~EDIBLEOILS.

Based on your interest in ~EDIBLEOILS you may find it interesting to know that HATSUN, LTTS and CUB are mid caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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