Don't lose faith in COURIERSERVICES THEME now, it delivered good returns

Courier Services showed marginal outperformance on Friday. It delivered -1.46% to close at 595.498. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 18% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.13%.

[Theme constituents]

~COURIERSERVICES showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~COURIERSERVICES delivered -4.83% and saw a maximum drawdown of -16.75%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +11.5% to investors.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

~COURIERSERVICES has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 8 Jan, 2016 to 1 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 13 days, ~COURIERSERVICES underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 51% days.

During the last three months ~COURIERSERVICES was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.06% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.68%) was on Wednesday, 21 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.04%) was on Friday, 28 Sep, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 30 Nov, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.88% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw ~COURIERSERVICES's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. ~COURIERSERVICES was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. ~COURIERSERVICES was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -17.52% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~COURIERSERVICES had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -25.14%. It is interesting to note that both ~COURIERSERVICES and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Many folks think they aren't good at earning money, when what they don't know is how to use it.
-- Frank A. Clark

~COURIERSERVICES is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~COURIERSERVICES's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 3 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~COURIERSERVICES has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that ~COURIERSERVICES is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ~COURIERSERVICES. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ~COURIERSERVICES in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~COURIERSERVICES.

Based on your interest in ~COURIERSERVICES you may find it interesting to know that SPLIL, HEG and VMART have all shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investor's watchlist.