CONSUMERLENDING THEME investors herd to book profits while the going is good

Consumer Lending ranked among the worst performers today. It increased by +1.38% to close at 3059.47. During the last week it increased by +0.68% and saw a maximum drawdown of -1.59% before bouncing back.

[Theme constituents]

~CONSUMERLENDING is currently in a bullish trend. Over the last three months 2 bullish signals in ~CONSUMERLENDING have generated a profit of +0.73% for investors.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

~CONSUMERLENDING has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 1 Jan, 2016 to 9 Aug, 2018. Over the last 2 years and 12 months, ~CONSUMERLENDING outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 55% days.

During the last three months ~CONSUMERLENDING was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.04% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.8%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.48%) was on Monday, 24 Sep, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 4 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +5.57%) started on 31 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -8.98%) started on 3 Oct, 2018 and went on till 8 Oct, 2018.

The last 12 months saw ~CONSUMERLENDING's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. During the last year, ~CONSUMERLENDING delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. ~CONSUMERLENDING was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -14.22% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~CONSUMERLENDING had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +9.68%. It is interesting to note that both ~CONSUMERLENDING and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Traditionally, the sample is always better than the stock you deliver to the store.
-- Calvin Klein

~CONSUMERLENDING is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ~CONSUMERLENDING's volatility from 11 Oct, 2018 to 26 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~CONSUMERLENDING has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~CONSUMERLENDING to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~CONSUMERLENDING a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~CONSUMERLENDING has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, ~CONSUMERLENDING must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~CONSUMERLENDING.

Based on your interest in ~CONSUMERLENDING you may find it interesting to know that ~CHEMICALS, HONAUT and BRITANNIA have all performed similar to ~CONSUMERLENDING and qualify as alternative investment candidates that must be evaluated for diversification.