Want to invest in CERAMIC THEME? Consider as it managed to marginally outperform the broader market

Ceramic managed to marginally outperform the broader market today. It gained +3.0% to close at 1011.72. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.93%, +3.02%, +1.34%, -2.93% and -0.29%.

[Theme constituents]

~CERAMIC showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~CERAMIC returned -12.16% and saw a maximum drawdown of -19.07%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +12.16%.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

~CERAMIC has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 30 Nov, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 13 days, ~CERAMIC underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 51% days.

~CERAMIC returned losses on 55% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.2% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.31%, during this period, on Friday, 21 Sep, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 9 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -7.64% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 24 Oct, 2018 and ended on 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +8.97% to investors.

On monthly basis, ~CERAMIC delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. ~CERAMIC delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. ~CERAMIC was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -17.22% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~CERAMIC had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 11 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -61.1%. It is interesting to note that both ~CERAMIC and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

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~CERAMIC is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~CERAMIC's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 21 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~CERAMIC has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~CERAMIC to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~CERAMIC a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ~CERAMIC. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ~CERAMIC in your portfolio. ~CERAMIC usually has shorter drawdown period than the NIFTY-50 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~CERAMIC), three small cap instruments that deserve special mention are NIITTECH, VINATIORGA and RESPONIND. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.