Beverages THEME

1506.77 +1.44 (+0.1%) Sell

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Profit booking on the minds of BEVERAGES THEME investors as it ranks better than it's peers but, has not managed to breakout

13 min read

~BEVERAGES performed better than the broader market today. On a longer term basis, investors in Beverages made +0.07% per day. Friday's performance of +0.1% was a significant outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Theme constituents]

Buy-and-Hold investors in ~BEVERAGES experienced a maximum drawdown of -19.23% over the last three months. It returned -15.41% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +12.7%.

Trend

~BEVERAGES has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 30 Nov, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 13 days, ~BEVERAGES outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days ~BEVERAGES outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months ~BEVERAGES was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.26% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.44%) was on Monday, 15 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.12%) was on Monday, 24 Sep, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.34% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 3 Dec, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.83% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, ~BEVERAGES delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. ~BEVERAGES delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. ~BEVERAGES significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +14.92% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. ~BEVERAGES and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both ~BEVERAGES and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money

~BEVERAGES is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~BEVERAGES's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 15 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~BEVERAGES has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

~BEVERAGES has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, ~BEVERAGES must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. ~BEVERAGES usually has shorter drawdown period than the NIFTY-50 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~BEVERAGES), DMART has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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