Bajaj Group THEME

2044.17 +1.68 (+0.08%) Buy

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BAJAJGRP THEME investors doing a reality check

14 min read

Bajaj Group ranked among the worst performers on Tuesday. It grew by +0.08% to close at 2044.17. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 66% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.19%.

[Theme constituents]

~BAJAJGRP is currently in a up trend. Over the last three months Buy-and-Hold has been a better strategy (returning -3.93%) for ~BAJAJGRP's investors than trading long signals.

Trend

~BAJAJGRP has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 8 Jan, 2018. Over the last 2 years and 12 months, ~BAJAJGRP outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.

During the last three months ~BAJAJGRP delivered profits on 50% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +5.55%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.19%) was on Wednesday, 17 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +5.88% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 19 Nov, 2018 and ended on 26 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -3.44% of investor capital.

~BAJAJGRP had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. ~BAJAJGRP was profitable in more months than NIFTY-50 index. ~BAJAJGRP significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +9.47% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. ~BAJAJGRP had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Jun 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered +11.98%. It is interesting to note that both ~BAJAJGRP and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"The thing I have discovered about working with personal finance is that the good news is that it is not rocket science. Personal finance is about 80 percent behavior. It is only about 20 percent head knowledge.

~BAJAJGRP is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ~BAJAJGRP's volatility from 12 Oct, 2018 to 15 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~BAJAJGRP has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~BAJAJGRP to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~BAJAJGRP a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~BAJAJGRP has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, ~BAJAJGRP must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. ~BAJAJGRP usually has shorter drawdown period than the NIFTY-50 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~BAJAJGRP), LTTS is a mid cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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