Alcohol THEME

1330.11 -6.69 (-0.5%) Sell

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Profit booking on the minds of ALCOHOL THEME investors as it ranks better than it's peers but, has not managed to breakout

14 min read

Alcohol performed better than the broader market today. It returned -0.5% to close at 1330.11. During the last week it returned +5.17% and saw a maximum drawdown of -0.5% before bouncing back.

[Theme constituents]

Buy-and-Hold investors in ~ALCOHOL experienced a maximum drawdown of -19.7% over the last three months. It returned -11.9% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +3.12%.

Trend

~ALCOHOL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 2 May, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 13 days, ~ALCOHOL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 52% days.

During the last three months ~ALCOHOL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.19% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.37%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.7%) was on Friday, 5 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 27 Sep, 2018 and went on till 8 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -16.57% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 9 Oct, 2018 and ended on 17 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +13.77% to investors.

On monthly basis, ~ALCOHOL delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. ~ALCOHOL delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. ~ALCOHOL significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +34.82% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. ~ALCOHOL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -12.32%. It is interesting to note that both ~ALCOHOL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

If all the economists were laid end to end, they'd never reach a conclusion.
-- George Bernard Shaw

~ALCOHOL is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ~ALCOHOL's volatility from 5 Oct, 2018 to 19 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~ALCOHOL has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~ALCOHOL to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~ALCOHOL a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ~ALCOHOL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ~ALCOHOL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~ALCOHOL.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~ALCOHOL), three instruments that deserve special mention are IGARASHI, SPLIL and CUB. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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