AIRLINES THEME continues it's uptrend, although on a weaker note

~AIRLINES performed better than the broader market today. On a longer term basis, investors in Airlines made -0.05% per day. Friday's performance of +1.65% was a significant outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Theme constituents]

~AIRLINES showed a strong up trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~AIRLINES returned +10.44% and saw a maximum drawdown of -26.21%. There was a long signal during this period which returned +12.52%.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

~AIRLINES has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 12 Jan, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 13 days, ~AIRLINES underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.

During the last three months ~AIRLINES was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.23% per day. It's best return during this period (of +12.0%) was on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.78%) was on Friday, 5 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 18 Sep, 2018 and went on till 3 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -25.95% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 1 Nov, 2018 and ended on 9 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +13.31% to investors.

~AIRLINES had 4 profitable and 8 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, ~AIRLINES underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. ~AIRLINES significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +28.17% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. ~AIRLINES had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from May 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered -76.89%. It is interesting to note that both ~AIRLINES and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Here's my gift-giving rule: Respect your current financial situation.
-- Suze Orman

~AIRLINES is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~AIRLINES's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 15 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~AIRLINES has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~AIRLINES to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~AIRLINES a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

~AIRLINES has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, ~AIRLINES must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. ~AIRLINES usually has shorter drawdown period than the NIFTY-50 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~AIRLINES), HEG has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.